U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected that dry gas production will climb from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 to 107.1 bcfd in 2025 and 107.4 bcfd in 2026. That compares with a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.
The agency also projected that domestic gas consumption will rise from a record 90.5 bcfd in 2024 to 91.6 bcfd in 2025 and 2026. The October projections for 2025 were higher than EIA’s forecasts in September of 106.6 bcfd for production and 91.5 bcfd for demand. The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would rise to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024. With power generators expected to burn more coal this year than in 2024, the EIA projected U.S. coal production would rise from 512.1 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1964, to 531.3 million tons in 2025 before falling to 493.6 million tons in 2026, the lowest since 1963. EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would rise from a four-year low of 4.793 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.880 billion metric tons in 2025 as oil, coal and gas use increases, before easing to 4.844 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil and coal use declines.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Rod Nickel and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)