Brent crude could rise above $85 per barrel if Russian exports fall sharply, Barclays said, well above the bank’s previous forecast of $66 per barrel for 2026.
In late October, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia’s largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, in Washington’s toughest measures against Russian business during the war with Ukraine.
“Geopolitical tensions remain elevated while oil flows continue largely unabated,” Barclays said in a note on Friday, reiterating that this poses upside risks to oil prices.
Brent crude futures were trading around $64.43 a barrel as of 1728 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $60.16.
Barclays said oil demand continues to grow broadly in line with the long-term pre-pandemic trend despite the rise of electric vehicles, and the bank does not see a peak in demand on the horizon anytime soon.
The bank said growing tensions between the United States and Venezuela and a U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean also pose upside risks to oil prices.
(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton)