U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday.
EIA projected dry gas production will rise from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 to 107.7 bcfd in 2025 and 109.1 bcfd in 2026. That compares with a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption will rise from a record 90.4 bcfd in 2024 to 91.8 bcfd in 2025 before sliding to 90.8 bcfd in 2026.
The December projections for 2025 were higher than EIA’s demand forecast in November of 91.6 bcfd, but unchanged from its production forecast of 107.7 bcfd.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would rise to 14.9 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024.
With power generators expected to burn more coal this year than in 2024, the EIA projected U.S. coal production would rise from 512.5 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1964, to 531.5 million tons in 2025 before falling to 519.6 million tons in 2026.
EIA projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would rise from a four-year low of 4.792 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.883 billion metric tons in 2025 as oil, coal and gas use increases, before easing to 4.823 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil and coal use declines.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Chris Reese and Leslie Adler)