Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday that Alberta’s planned vote on potentially breaking away from the rest of Canada, while not binding, could become “a dangerous bluff” and that asking such questions was “not helpful.” The oil-rich province said last week it would proceed with a non-binding referendum in October on whether its residents want to remain part of Canada.
“I saw firsthand what happened in the United Kingdom… They’re still 10 years later trying to undo what people didn’t think they were voting for, but what they ended up having,” Carney said, referring to the 2016 Brexit vote on leaving the European Union.
Albertans will be asked whether the province should remain a part of Canada or the government should start the legal process that is constitutionally required in order to hold a binding referendum on independence at a later date.
“Is it helpful to ask these fundamental questions? No, it’s not helpful, of course it’s not,” Carney told reporters. “Is it the democratic will of Albertans? Did they vote for this in the last provincial election? No, they didn’t.” Alberta’s right-of-center United Conservative Party did not mention a referendum in the run-up to its election victory in the province in 2023.
An Angus Reid poll issued on Monday found that 60% of Albertans would vote to stay in Canada and 67% would vote “no” if a binding referendum were eventually held.
Those pushing for separation say they are unhappy with the environmental policies of Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, which they believe have undermined the province’s oil and gas industry. Carney has rolled back several of Trudeau’s green measures since taking power in March 2025.
Carney, who served as governor of the Bank of England during Brexit, warned against those who might argue that backing a non-binding referendum would strengthen the province’s hand in future talks with Ottawa.
“This is an observation from experience. In these separation issues, it’s often advanced that, ‘Vote for this, and it’s a free option, vote for this, and we will strengthen our hand in future negotiation.’ That is a very dangerous bluff,” he said.
The October vote would mark the first time in Canadian history that a province outside of Quebec has put the question of separation to the public.
It is expected to be divisive not only within Alberta but more broadly in Canada, as Carney attempts to lead a united Canadian front in grappling with U.S. tariffs and the renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement in coming months.
(Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Maria Cheng and Edmund Klamann)