Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro’s capture by the United States has deprived Vladimir Putin of an ally and could increase U.S. “oil clout”, but Moscow is eying potential gains from President Donald Trump’s division of the world into spheres of influence.
Special Forces seized Maduro only eight months after the Russian president agreed a strategic partnership with his “dear friend”, and Trump said the U.S. was taking temporary control of Venezuela, which has the world’s biggest oil reserves.
Some Russian nationalists have criticised the loss of an ally and contrasted the swift U.S. operation with Russia’s failure to take control of Ukraine in almost four years of war.
But on another level, what Russia casts as Trump’s “piracy” and “regime change” in the United States’ “backyard” is more tolerable for Moscow, especially if Washington becomes bogged down in Venezuela.
“Russia has lost an ally in Latin America,” said a senior Russian source, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.
“But if this is an example of Trump’s Monroe Doctrine in action, as it seems to be, then Russia also has its own sphere of influence.”
The source was referring to the Trump administration’s desire to reassert U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere and revive the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, which declared the area to be Washington’s zone of influence.
A second Russian source said Moscow saw the U.S. operation as a clear attempt to gain control of Venezuela’s oil wealth and observed that most Western powers had not openly criticised it.
THE DANGERS OF TRUMP’S ‘WILD WEST’
Putin has been trying to stake out a Russian sphere of influence in former Soviet republics in Central Asia, the Caucasus and Ukraine in a push opposed by Washington since the Cold War ended.
Putin has not commented publicly on the U.S. operation in Venezuela although Russia’s foreign ministry has urged Trump to release Maduro and called for dialogue. The ministry previously cast Trump’s actions as modern-day piracy in the Caribbean.
Russian state media have depicted the operation as a U.S. “kidnapping”, reported remarks by Trump on the U.S. having “sick” neighbours and referred to the U.S. capture of military leader Manuel Noriega in Panama on January 3, 1990.
“That Trump just ‘stole’ the president of another country shows that there is basically no international law – there is only the law of force – but Russia has known that for a long time,” Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, told Reuters.
He said the modern-day Monroe Doctrine – which Trump suggested could be updated as the “Donroe Doctrine” – could be interpreted in different ways.
“Is the United States really ready to recognise Russia’s dominance over the former Soviet Union, or is it simply that the United States is so strong that it will not tolerate any great powers even close to it?”
Alexei Pushkov, who chairs the commission on information policy in Russia’s Federation Council, or senate, saw the U.S. operation in Venezuela as a direct implementation of the U.S. National Security Strategy, depicting it as an attempt to revive U.S. supremacy and gain sway over more oil reserves.
But he said it risked a return to “the wild imperialism of the 19th century and, in fact, reviving the concept of the Wild West – the Wild West in the sense that the United States has regained the right to do what they want in the Western Hemisphere.”
“Will the triumph turn into a disaster?” he asked.
RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS COMPARE VENEZUELA AND UKRAINE
For Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, having a U.S. president focused on – and potentially bogged down in – the Western Hemisphere would appear to be more than acceptable, given Russia’s focus on Ukraine and China’s on Taiwan.
But some Russian nationalists have criticised the loss of an ally so soon after Bashar al-Assad’s fall in Syria, and compared the speed of the U.S. operation with the much slower pace of Russia’s advances in Ukraine.
Russia’s largest oil producer, Rosneft, terminated operations in Venezuela in 2020 and sold its assets related to operations there to a company owned by Russia’s government.
Jailed Russian nationalist Igor Girkin said the U.S. had shown in Venezuela how a great power should act when facing a potential threat and cast the U.S. operation as part of an attempt to cut oil flows to China.
“We’ve had another blow to our image – another country that counted on Russia’s help did not get it,” Girkin said.
“Having got bogged down up to our ears in the bloody swamp of Ukraine, we are practically incapable of anything else, especially since we cannot help Venezuela in another hemisphere that is right next door to the United States.”
(Editing by Timothy Heritage)