Venezuela’s default-stricken government bonds surged on Monday following the surprise U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro.
Maduro’s detainment and removal to the U.S. on Saturday following a military raid in Caracas has fuelled expectations of what is likely to be one of the largest – and potentially most complex – sovereign debt restructurings of all time.
Bonds issued by the country’s government and state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, known as PDVSA, jumped as much as 8 cents on the dollar, or around 20%, in early European trading, with analysts predicting further gains to come.
“Venezuela and PDVSA bonds have roughly doubled in price since during the course of 2025, but should still see a strong bounce — up to 10 points — at the start of Monday’s session,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note to clients.
Venezuela’s sovereign bonds, which went into default in 2017, were the best performing in the world last year, nearly doubling in price as U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up military pressure on Maduro.
Monday’s moves pushed Venezuela’s 2031 bond to almost 40 cents on the dollar, Tradeweb data showed, with most of the country’s other bonds up at between 35 and 38 cents and PDVSA debt over 6 cents higher at almost 30 cents.
Venezuela’s government and its state oil company PDVSA have defaulted on bonds with a face value of around $60 billion outstanding. However, total external debt, including other PDVSA obligations, bilateral loans and arbitration awards, stands at roughly $150 billion-$170 billion, depending on how accrued interest and court judgments are counted, according to analysts.
(Reporting by Marc Jones and Karin Strohecker; Editing by Alison Williams)