CALGARY – Analysts at CIBC are forecasting a wider discount on Alberta heavy crude this year as U.S. plans to rebuild Venezuela’s ailing industry dominate headlines.
The bank estimates the differential between Western Canada Select, the heavy Alberta blend, and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. light oil benchmark, to average US$14.25 a barrel in 2026.
For 2025, the price gap averaged US$11.30, as Canadian producers benefited from the first full year of operations of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to the West Coast, enabling exports to Asia.
Venezuelan and Alberta oilsands crude both have a thick, tarry consistency and require specialized equipment to refine into products like gasoline and diesel.
Refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast are set up to handle that type of oil, so any meaningful increase in Venezuelan supplies on the market would compete with imports from Alberta and could weigh on WCS prices.
Meanwhile, the price of WTI is up almost three per cent to US$61 per barrel in midday trading.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 13, 2026.