Gulf Coast re-exports of Canadian heavy crude will increase significantly in the coming decade as a result of approved and proposed pipeline projects set to carry more oil from Canada to the U.S., the head of Enbridge’s crude oil pipeline division said on Monday.
The opening of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline in 2024 redirected a significant share of Canada’s export-bound crude oil towards British Columbia’s Pacific coast and away from U.S. Gulf Coast terminals, said Colin Gruending, president of liquids pipelines for Canadian pipeline company Enbridge.
But Enbridge’s planned expansion of its Mainline crude oil pipeline network means some of Canada’s new export capacity will be sent through the Gulf to international markets, Gruending said in an interview at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston.
Between 200,000 and 400,000 barrels per day of Canadian crude is currently re-exported off the Gulf Coast, Gruending said.
“But forecasts assume that will grow,” he said.
Enbridge believes India as well as many African nations could look to meet their demand for oil in the coming decades by buying re-exported Canadian crude, he said.
The company’s crude oil network already transports about 30% of North America’s crude oil output. Last fall, it approved expansions for its Mainline and Flanagan South pipelines to the U.S., which will add a combined 250,000 bpd of capacity for Canadian heavy oil shippers moving oil to the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast.
The additional capacity is expected to come online in 2027.
It is also gauging commercial interest for a second phase of its Mainline expansion, which it has said could be in service in 2028 and would add another 250,000 bpd of capacity.
At the same time, Enbridge’s competitor South Bow is proposing to partner with U.S. pipeline company Bridger Pipeline to revive parts of the cancelled Keystone XL pipeline. That project would increase Canada’s current oil exports to the U.S. by more than 12%, if it goes ahead.
In addition, the Trans Mountain pipeline from Alberta to Canada’s west coast is planning a series of enhancements that could increase its capacity by 360,000 bpd.
Enbridge’s own forecast predicts Canadian oil production will increase by 1 million bpd by 2035.
Canada produced on average 5.3 million bpd of crude oil in 2025, according to the Canada Energy Regulator.
(Reporting by Amanda Stephenson in Houston; Editing by Sonali Paul)