Barclays is maintaining its 2026 average Brent crude oil price forecast at $100 a barrel though risks are skewing higher, the bank said in a note on Friday.
In trading on Friday, Brent futures were at about $105 a barrel as investors doubted the prospects of a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace talks, while the key Strait of Hormuz stayed closed.
Around 20% of global energy supplies transited the strait before the war, and the conflict has removed 14 million barrels per day of oil – or 14% of global supply – from the market from suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait.
“Inventory trends are signaling a 6-8 (million bpd) deficit with the U.S. inventories within reach of the lowest levels since 2020,” the bank said.
Barclays said that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to fully reopen today, the starting point for inventories even in the most optimistic scenario will be roughly 20 million barrel below the tightest level in recent history.
Meanwhile, demand remains largely resilient and any weakness in the end uses linked to industrial activity will likely recover strongly if supply normalizes quickly, the bank added.
(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)