Renewed disruptions to Persian Gulf oil exports could keep upward pressure on prices in the near term, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Tuesday, adding that the next phase of recovery in flows remains uncertain and could be slower than the initial rebound even after geopolitical de-escalation.
* Goldman estimates that Gulf exports recovered to more than 80% of pre-war levels after a U.S.-Iran MoU in June, but slipped back below 50%, or about 11 million barrels per day (bpd), over the last week following fresh tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
* Oil prices climbed for a third straight session on Wednesday as President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports and Iran launched retaliatory strikes on U.S. infrastructure in the region.
* Brent rose 0.9% to $85.52 a barrel by 0421 GMT while WTI was up 0.6% at $79.86 a barrel. Both benchmarks hit their highest in a month on Tuesday.
* Goldman highlighted two-sided risks to its Brent oil forecast of $80 for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 for 2027.
* Brent could exceed $110 in the fourth quarter this year if Gulf export recovery continues to stall, the bank said.
* Prices could, however, fall into the $60s by year-end if regional tensions ease and production recovers more quickly than expected, it said.
* Goldman cautioned that any further recovery in Gulf exports is likely to be uneven due to the risk of additional attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure, and estimated that the reinstated U.S. blockade of Iranian ports could cut Iranian exports by 1.5 million to 2 million bpd.
* The bank said that the estimated net hit to Persian gulf flows doubled over the last week to 13.4 million bpd, implying that the market requires more adjustment mechanisms to buffer the impact.
* China’s crude imports, which fell by 5 million bpd year-on-year in June, may have reached a floor, Goldman added.
(Reporting by Pablo Sinha and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Kevin Buckland)