BP on Tuesday posted a first-quarter underlying replacement cost profit, its version of net income, of $3.2 billion, compared with expectations of $2.67 billion in a company-provided poll of analysts and $1.38 billion a year ago. BP's customers and products business, including its oil trading desk which BP had already flagged as having an exceptionally strong quarter, beat expectations with a $3.2 billion profit before interest and tax, compared with an average analyst estimate of $2.5 billion. [Read more]

Dissonance between record-high stocks and a geopolitical shock puzzles many, and a common narrative is that investors are "seeing through" the Iran conflict. But there's another take: this is just the sort of world we're now stuck in, and blow-by-blow events matter less than mega-trends and long horizons. In an event-packed week like this, arguments cut both ways. Sky-high oil prices are real and do matter - but they could, and have, also dropped 15% to 20% in an hour in this frenetic war [Read more]

The U.S. has stepped in to shield the global economy from the oil crunch triggered by the Iran war by boosting exports, selectively easing sanctions and tapping strategic reserves. The conflict may be denting Washington’s standing in some quarters, but it is also cementing its transformation into the world’s dominant energy superpower. Unlike in previous oil crises, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been left largely powerless. The near-hermetic closure of the Strait of [Read more]

Citi raised its outlook for average Brent crude prices for the rest of 2026 late on Sunday, warning prices could surge to $150 a barrel if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted through the end of June. The bank lifted its base-case forecast for Brent to $110, $95 and $80 a barrel for the second, third and fourth quarter of 2026, respectively, assigning a 50% probability to that scenario. Citi also pushed back its expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the end of [Read more]

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter to $90 a barrel for Brent crude and $83 for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), on lower output from the Middle East. "The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock," GS analysts led by Daan Struyven said in an April 26 note. * Forecast assumes [Read more]