Today's high oil prices do not reflect the gravity of the threat to global energy markets from the Iran war and could rise much higher if the Strait of Hormuz does not re-open, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said on Tuesday. "The prices are, in my view, they do not reflect the current situation we are in," Birol told the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington. He said if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened to the free flow of oil and gas the world could see [Read more]

A plurality of investors expect benchmark Brent oil to trade between $80 and $90 a barrel by the end of this year, according to a BofA survey of fund managers published on Tuesday, down from its current level just under $100. Investor sentiment was also at its most bearish in 10 months, but few are outright expecting a recession, according to BofA's April 2-9 survey of 193 investors with a combined $563 billion assets under management. ** Investor oil forecasts fairly spilt however, 34% [Read more]

The International Energy Agency sharply cut its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, saying both are now expected to fall from 2025 levels as war in the Middle East disrupts oil flows and weighs on the global economy. The IEA now sees global oil demand falling by 80,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared with a projected year-on-year rise of 640,000 bpd in its previous monthly report. "Demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist," the IEA said, adding [Read more]

BP said on Tuesday it expects its huge oil trading desk to post "exceptional" results for the first quarter, signalling a windfall from the spike in oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. The company also said its net debt would rise to between $25 billion and $27 billion from just over $22 billion in the previous quarter because of movements in working capital, an accounting measure of short-term liquidity based on current assets minus liabilities. Global benchmark [Read more]

A third Iran-linked tanker was entering the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday on the first full day of the U.S. blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports, shipping data showed. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the blockade on Sunday after weekend peace talks in Islamabad between the U.S. and Iran failed to reach a deal. As the three vessels transiting the strait were not heading to Iranian ports, they are not covered by the blockade. Panama-flagged Peace Gulf, a [Read more]

Commodities supercycles can reshape markets for years, if not decades. We appear to be in one again, as the Iran war has amplified several long-term bullish trends. The question for many investors has shifted from whether to engage with the supercycle to how. Following the initial U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran on February 28, oil recorded its largest monthly gain in history. Combine that with copper and gold's substantial gains since mid-2025 – as well as the ongoing race for energy, metals and [Read more]

The discount on Western Canada Select crude oil to North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures widened on Monday. WCS for May delivery in Hardisty, Alberta, settled at $16.25 a barrel below the U.S. benchmark WTI, according to brokerage CalRock, compared to $15.55 on Friday. * The WCS differential has been volatile since the start of the U.S. war on Iran, with competing variables pulling and pushing on relative prices for Canadian heavy crude. * Historically, the [Read more]

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said on Monday he hopes another oil stockpile release is not needed but "we stand ready to act" if the energy shock resulting from the war with Iran requires it. The 32-member IEA agreed last month to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves, the largest coordinated release ever, in a bid to calm oil markets. The U.S., the world's largest oil and gas producer, agreed to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum [Read more]

OPEC on Monday lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day, citing the impact of the war in the Middle East, the producer group's monthly oil report showed on its website. Global oil demand is projected to average 105.07 million bpd in the second quarter, OPEC's report said, down from the 105.57 million bpd forecast in last month's report. "The demand growth for the second quarter of 2026 is revised down for both the OECD and non-OECD, driven [Read more]