It is not a bad assumption to say that no one is reading anything these days beyond staring at screens waiting to see if the US openly enters the Israel-Iran fray and things really go boom. Considering that Iran is a key piece of the BRICS axis, the consequences are not to be taken lightly. So we all look for clues, and, since he’s not exactly shy, Trump’s social media feed isn’t a bad place to start, if you can handle it. He did, for example, throw out the fairly unambiguous all caps scream: “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” a few days ago, then called Iran’s leader an “easy target” but that “we’re not going to take him out (kill!), at least for now”, then the next day took a wild swing at France’s Macron (“Publicity seeking President Emanual Macron…has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington…Emanuel always gets it wrong.” Then he took time out of his day to attack “kooky Tucker Carlson” and take credit for solving the Serbia/Kosovo war and the Egypt/Ethiopia conflict, before sadly lamenting: “I do a lot, and never get credit for anything.” OK, maybe it’s not the best place to watch as a guidepost to what’s unfolding. Actually, it’s far more simple to watch the price of oil, which moves rapidly up with any sign of trouble and down with the opposite news. That will save you time to catch up on a few interesting articles like these things laying open in one of a hundred browser sessions on my computer.
Interesting happenings in the world of ship building. The White House recently issued a howler of an Executive Order: “RESTORING AMERICA’S MARITIME DOMINANCE” that aims to make shipbuilding a thing in the US again (the EO notes that the US currently constructs less than 1 percent of commercial ships globally while China produces half). The EO requests a review within 45 days with “recommendations to increase the number of participants and competitors within United States shipbuilding, and to reduce cost overruns and production delays.” No small task in 45 days, wonder how it’s going…a fascinating shipping specialist website called gCaptain.com documents the reality: across US programs, initial timeline estimates typically extend by 30-60 percent, with cost overruns ranging from 25 percent to “well over 100.” The article also notes the staggering requirements to build a single large ship: the new aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford required 47,000 tons of steel, 5,000 workers, and took 5-7 years to complete. It’s no small task to build big ships. Just ask the Trump-labeled Little Rocket Man, North Korean emperor Kim Jong Un, who was recently furious and embarrassed at a grand launch of their new 5,000 ton destroyer warship when it fell off the dock and landed on its side in the water. Hell hath no fury like that little guy when things don’t go well. Experts point to the use of a risky ‘side launch” of a top-heavy ship rather than the normal way as a the probable cause, but nevertheless the carcass was quickly covered in blue tarps, four were arrested because that’s the way it goes, and the embarrassed leadership quickly insisted there was little damage to the vessel, a bit of water damage, nothing to see here…yeah right. Aerial photos apparently show heavy damage but you’d be a fool to point that out while standing on the dock. Story here, gCaptain article here.
Anyone remember Dieselgate? I do. I owned a diesel VW Golf wagon about that time. While under warranty, it had an odd habit of destroying a fuel injector every 6 months or so. The check engine light would come on, I’d take it to the dealer with my consumer-quizzical look, they’d tell me “No big deal, just needs a new fuel injector.” After the warranty expired, it happened again, and I headed back to the service department with my consumer-panicked expression on, because I didn’t want to know what a new injector would cost out of my own pocket. “No problem,” said VW, and nonchalantly changed the injector on the house, the fifth change on a four cylinder car. I soon found out why. Dieselgate broke, and it was obvious that their fuel management system was not just designed to cheat on emissions tests (which they admitted to) but it seemed evident that their quest for mileage was coming at a cost to reliability, one that they cheerfully swept under the rug and didn’t want to elaborate on. Ten years later, four German VW execs are now on their way to prison over the scandal. VW claims it has cost them $30 billion, but the repercussions went far beyond that – VW was forced to underwrite a significant chunk of the US EV push, paying for charger installations and infrastructure across the US, as penance for cheating. VW spent $2 billion building out a network of 4,800 charging ports across the US, which are now under fire because their reliability is abysmal. Just like my old Golf. Jail story here. VW charging network story here.
Nvidia, the stock market darling of AI, recently unveiled a new chip rack that shows why natural gas producers should be sleeping soundly at night for the foreseeable future. The power consumption is something to behold, and that won’t stop anyone from chasing them. For context, a current Nvidia H100 rack, with 40-160 GPUs per rack, would consume about 14-64 kW. The new Rubin Ultra rack, with 88 custom Arm cores, is coming in 2027 and will consume 600 kW. “This transition is going to take years of planning, this isn’t like buying a laptop, which is why I am telling you now,” said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. “We have to plan with the land and the power for data centers with engineering teams two to three years out, which is why I [am showing] the roadmap.” Indeed. Over that time frame, natural gas is the only game in town, and demand seems to be going only straight up. Nvidia 100H stats here, Rubin story here.
Explore the lighter side of energy, and think of it as you never have before in The End of Fossil Fuel Insanity – the energy story for those that don’t live in the energy world, but want to find out. And laugh. Available at Amazon.ca, Indigo.ca, or Amazon.com.
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