A record wave of new liquefied natural gas production capacity coming online until 2030 is set to transform gas market dynamics by strengthening global supply security and easing market pressure, the International Energy Agency said on Monday.
The IEA said in its “Gas 2025” medium-term outlook report that 300 billion cubic metres per year of LNG export capacity is set to be added by 2030, primarily in the United States and Qatar.
This translates into a potential net LNG supply increase of 250 bcm a year by 2030, the Paris-based agency added.
“Barring unexpected disruptions, this is forecast to result in lower prices in the years ahead and spur higher demand,” it said.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a supply shock and lifted prices to record highs, and although global markets have gradually rebalanced, prices remain above historical levels, restraining demand, the IEA said.
The IEA report’s base case forecasts gas demand to grow by 1.5% annually between 2024 and 2030, or 380 bcm in absolute terms by 2030.
Half of this growth is expected to originate in the Asia Pacific region, with almost 30% stemming from the Middle East, as countries like Saudi Arabia are switching from oil to gas for power systems.
“The coming LNG wave is set to offer some respite for global gas markets, which have been tight and volatile for several years,” Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security, said in a statement.
However, elevated geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty left “no room for complacency”, he added, urging global cooperation to ensure supply security, especially amid a rise in electricity consumption set to drive gas demand.
A prolonged period of lower LNG prices could reduce investment incentives and lead to a potential tightening of global gas markets after 2030, especially if demand growth follows a higher trajectory, the IEA said.
(Reporting by Nora Buli in Oslo; Editing by Jan Harvey)