Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to grow to 113 million barrels per day in 2040 from 103.5 mbpd in 2024, driven by rising energy needs and ongoing challenges in low-carbon technology and infrastructure, the Wall Street bank said on Thursday.
“We expect solid annual average demand growth of 0.9 mbpd in 2025-2030, before slowing to 0.1 mbpd by 2040,” it said in a note.
Key factors Goldman cited for its above-consensus outlook include limited alternatives for jet fuel and petrochemicals due to technology bottlenecks, and energy demand growth outpacing oil displacement even after road fuel peaks post-2030. It also noted an indirect 3 mbpd boost from artificial intelligence-driven gross domestic product growth by 2040.
However, Goldman also noted downside risks from faster progress in low-carbon tech and potential recessions. Oil prices held largely steady on Thursday, a day after declining around 4%, as investors weighed concerns about global oversupply with looming sanctions against Russia’s Lukoil.
(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang)