Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose this week to their highest level since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in February after a ceasefire deal reopened the waterway, data showed on Thursday.
Concerns about how long the strait would stay open also boosted trade.
Still, while there was an increase in oil shipments amid strong demand, especially in Asia after months of disruptions, overall sailings are still a fraction of the daily average of 125 ships passing through the strait before the February 28 conflict began.
Four tankers carrying six million barrels of crude oil sailed through the strait on Thursday and an additional four million barrels of Iranian crude onboard two separate tankers also left, according to analysis from Kpler.
On Wednesday, some 10.8 million barrels of oil were shipped out on six tankers, Kpler analysis showed.
“The rebound reflects the adaptability of Mideast Gulf export systems rather than a clean return to pre-conflict trade,” Kpler said in a report this week.
Many ships have been switching on their public AIS tracking transponders, but some may have gone undetected due in part to major disruption of AIS signals as well as ships not showing their movements through the strait. That makes it difficult to estimate the complete volume of shipments.
“Traffic levels are still below historical norms, and market participants continue to assess the durability of the current framework,” Greece-based Allied Shipbroking said in a report this week.
“The 60-day agreement has reduced immediate risks to navigation, but it has not removed broader geopolitical uncertainties from the region.”
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the Reuters Global Energy Forum in New York on Wednesday that some 20 million barrels of crude oil exited the strait in the last 24 hours, amounting to around a fifth of world consumption, and similar to levels in recent days following an initial U.S.-Iran agreement to end the conflict.
Traffic through Hormuz is rising daily although ships are avoiding the central area of the waterway. Many have opted to hug the Omani side of the strait with fewer opting to use Iranian waters, according to analysis of ship movements.
The so-called Traffic Separation Scheme, adopted by the U.N.’s shipping agency in 1968, established routing lanes through Iranian and Omani waters in the strait. This central section is currently not usable due to the risk of mines, shipping and maritime security sources said.
These risks, together with uncertainty over what Iran’s Revolutionary Guards may do has limited even more traffic passing through, shipping industry sources said.
U.N. EVACUATION SCHEME UNDERWAY
The Revolutionary Guards said in a statement on Thursday that safe passage through the strait was only possible through routes designated by Iran, warning that a newly announced shipping route proposed without coordination with Tehran was unacceptable and poses safety risks.
The statement added that action would be taken against vessels that fail to comply with the requirements.
A Panama-flagged crude oil tanker made a u-turn on Thursday after trying to transit the strait in the direction of Omani waters and the vessel was instructed to take the northern Iranian route, British maritime security company Ambrey said on Thursday citing messages that were broadcast.
A separate Panama-flagged oil products tanker was ordered to change course on Wednesday and wait for instructions after beginning a voyage through the Iranian side of Hormuz, Ambrey added.
A new scheme launched this week by the U.N.’s shipping agency to evacuate hundreds of vessels trapped inside the Gulf due to the conflict has seen some 57 ships carrying an estimated 1,100 seafarers transiting the strait since June 23, U.N. agency data showed on Thursday.
This voluntary scheme is for evacuation only and offers two routes via Omani and Iranian waters.
“The evacuation framework continues to be implemented as planned,” a spokesperson with the U.N.’s International Maritime Organization said on Thursday.
(Reporting by Jonathan Saul in London, Florence Tan, Emily Chow, Siyi Liu and Chen Aizhu in Singapore, Heejin Kim in Seoul, Bernadette Christina in Jakarta and Nerijus Adomaitis in Oslo; Editing by Susan Fenton)