Goldman Sachs on Friday maintained its forecast for Brent oil to average $76 per barrel in 2025, citing a balanced market situation, with lower OPEC+ supply offsetting an unexpected surge last month in commercial inventories at Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries.
“We maintain our annual average Brent forecasts of $76/bbl in 2025 and $71 in 2026 and our $70-85 range,” the investment bank said.
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, postponed on Thursday the start of oil output increases by three months until April.
The investment bank said the main factors behind that decision were: the price of Brent edged down to the low-to-mid $70s this year, the tendency for crude inventories to build in the first quarter due to maintenance of refineries, and uncertainty about the impact of the incoming Trump administration on the global oil balance.
Goldman Sachs now expects Saudi Arabia’s crude supply to edge up to 9.25 million barrels per day by late 2025, with four months of OPEC+ production increases beginning in July.
The investment bank forecasts a modest surplus of 0.4 mb/d in 2025 as an increase in non-OPEC supply – primarily from the U.S., Canada and Norway – nearly offsets the reduced supply from OPEC and Russia.
“We still see upside risks to prices in the short term from potentially lower Iran supply but downside risks in the medium term given high spare capacity and potentially broader U.S. tariffs,” Goldman Sachs said.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley and HSBC revised down their expectations for an oil market surplus next year and forecast a Brent price of $70 per barrel.
Brent crude futures were trading near $71.37 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $67.58 per barrel.
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)