Around many computer terminals located in major energy hubs sit hunched some very wealthy people that got that way by betting on the weather. Nothing so mundane as slapping down a hundred bucks on whether it will rain next Tuesday or not; they do it by betting on natural gas markets, which have the capacity to, within days, whipsaw positions into massive fortunes. Or losses, because the reverse is also true, as legendary gas trading firm Amaranth Advisors showed so spectacularly 20 years ago [Read more]
2026 signal to noise ratio is redlining, here’s some help
Quite the year so far, hey? Waking up to scan the news is like slowly prying one eye open for a peek, expecting sheer mayhem, and breathing a sigh of relief if there is only a minor cataclysmic event. Less than two weeks and we’ve had Venezuela and now Iran seize the world’s attention for different but related reasons, and who knows where will be next. It is mind-blowing to think that the next powder keg could be Greenland, a place whose every defining trait screams the exact opposite of powder [Read more]
And we thought 2025 was chaotic…2026 looks set to blow that away
We’re a few days into the new year, and a striking phenomenon so far is that we’ve heard hardly a mention of either AI or silver, both of which dominated hive mind chatter in the last few weeks of 2025. Knocking those two off the top pedestals is a new (for the time being) champ from South America. Everything changed this past weekend when the US surgically removed Nicolas Maduro as leader of Venezuela. The hive mind went ape. New experts appeared by the truckload. It was sight to behold; [Read more]
As the geopolitical landscape shifts, oil and natural gas remain key to everything
Once upon a time, I imagined there was a layer of people at the top of the world order that were supremely wise, experienced, and of the finest judgement. I assumed that the world moved with purpose as this elite crowd rolled up their sleeves and exercised their skills in a cohesive manner, instituting policies and programs that were the best and most logical choice based on finances and resources available. I assumed the west worked that way, as did the commies (the cold war lives on in my head [Read more]
Weekly Word Wanderings: Very bad AI, very good AI (for natural gas), and the weirdest French court case you can imagine
Engaging Articles of the Week You know how last year you changed your passwords from 1-2-3-4-5-6 to 6-5-4-3-2-1 in order to update security protocols and thwart criminals; well, a lot of firms and governments have something that believe it or not is even more secure – message encryption. As Microsoft puts it, “Encrypting an email message means it's converted from readable plain text into scrambled cipher text. Only the intended recipient can decipher the message for reading. Any recipient [Read more]
Leverage, Sweet Leverage: A new Canadian coastal oil pipeline would vastly improve Canada’s trade talk position
There are so many questions about the Alberta-Canada energy MOU...anyone thinking they’ve figured it out is probably spending too much time with the bong. There’s a good chance that, at this stage, it’s not even meant to be figured out, just open to interpretation so that everyone can score a win and everyone can be mad about it and then hey at least we have some sort of energy homeostasis which good Lord is what any sane person wants. The MOU is like something that fell out of a spaceship, [Read more]
Canada’s first step to becoming a Global Energy Power – finding common ground
Energy is at the heart of everything, and energy production should be exciting and dynamic and positive. It is not. Here, in large reason, is why. Consider the following passages, emphasis added. “The West as America is the total geopolitical opponent of Russia…The positional geopolitical war with America has been and continues to be the essence of all Eurasian geopolitics, beginning in the middle of the 20th century, when the role of the United States became obvious. In this regard, the [Read more]
Weekly Word Wanderings: Why Venezuela now?; COP30 Ironyfest; a primer in dynamiting dead whales; and an eccentric podcast
Engaging Articles of the Week The US administration’s international focus over the past 8 months could probably best be described as: ADHD. Eight months ago, as Canadians well remember, Trump spent a lot of social media time talking about the annexation of Canada. Then the focus shifted somewhat (but not completely) bizarrely to Greenland, creating another subset of international anxiety. In the midst of general jousting with all the major superpowers, the US administration now has its sights [Read more]
Keep it real – humans unlikely to accept amorphous blob status in worst-case AI scenarios
Environmentalists, the old fashioned kind, used to hold their rusty Subarus together with an assortment of bumper stickers, little rectangular slogans randomly overlaying decaying metal. A memorable one was the exhortation to go outdoors and ‘hug a tree’, thus causing a generation of nature lovers to be declared ‘tree huggers’ in a sometimes snarky way. (The phrase isn’t used much anymore, except oddly as advice to children if they become lost in the woods - to ‘hug a tree’ and stay put). I [Read more]
Why is it so hard to build stuff? A realistic assessment of the problem, and the best route forward
This is about the saddest topic to even contemplate writing about, the challenge of building infrastructure/major projects. It’s like sitting down and making a list of why you are not a Formula 1 driver. You have bad reflexes. You are too fat. You have no money. You have no talent. Your legs are too long. Your legs are too short. You don’t know oversteer from overbite. Not picking on anyone out there personally; what the above is getting at is that a Formula 1 driver has a nearly-unique set [Read more]
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