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Morgan Stanley left its Brent crude oil price forecasts unchanged on Monday, at $110 a barrel for the second quarter of 2026 and $100 a barrel in the third quarter, falling to $80 a barrel in 2027. The bank said it expected oil supply chains to take months to normalise even if a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz can be achieved. Under its base-case scenario, exports through the Strait stay at low levels in April, recover about 70% of lost volumes between May and July, and return to [Read more]

The U.S. military said it would block shipping traffic in and out of Iran's ports starting at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on Monday, a move that would prevent roughly two million barrels of Iranian oil a day from entering the world's markets, further tightening global supply. Here are details on the planned blockade and its implications for oil markets. WHAT WAS ANNOUNCED? After weekend peace talks in Islamabad between negotiators from the U.S. and Iran ended without a deal, President Donald [Read more]

Escalate to de-escalate is a well-worn playbook employed by U.S. President Donald Trump, and no doubt global crude oil markets are hoping his promise to blockade the Strait of Hormuz is just the latest example of this ploy. The announcement that the U.S. Navy will block vessels from Iranian ports using the narrow waterway raises the stakes massively in the six-week-old conflict. Trump's threat was delivered with his usual bombast in a social media post on Sunday, and it effectively ended [Read more]

Oil tankers are steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a U.S. blockade later on Monday following failed peace talks between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, shipping data showed. President Donald Trump said on Sunday the U.S. Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes after marathon talks with Iran failed to reach a deal to end the war, jeopardising a fragile two-week ceasefire. U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces would begin implementing the [Read more]

A U.S. naval blockade of Iran is a major, open-ended military endeavor that could trigger fresh retaliation from Tehran and put tremendous strain on an already fragile ceasefire, experts say. President Donald Trump, in a social media post after no deal emerged from peace talks this weekend in Islamabad, said the U.S. Navy "will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." The U.S. military's Central Command later said the blockade will only [Read more]

U.S. Central Command said it will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT), after President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy would start ​blockading the Strait of Hormuz. "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of [Read more]

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday that any military vessels attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the two-week U.S. ceasefire and be dealt with harshly and decisively. The strait is under the control and 'smart management' of Iran's Navy, the Guards said in a statement reported by Iranian state media, adding it is "open for the safe passage of non-military vessels in accordance with specific regulations". (Reporting by Ahmed Tolba and Hatem [Read more]

A sailing vessel was approached by a skiff with armed men on board 54 nautical miles southwest of Yemen's Hodeidah, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Sunday. UKMTO said the skiff was turned away after the master deployed a flare. (Reporting by Menna Alaa El-Din and Muhammad Al Gebaly Editing by David Goodman ) [Read more]

President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy would immediately start blockading the Strait of Hormuz and would also interdict every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran. Trump made his remarks in a Truth Social post hours after U.S-.Iran peace talks ended without a deal. Trump said the meeting "went well, most points were agreed," but added the two sides had not agreed on Iran's nuclear program. "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the [Read more]